Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)

Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change. Within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping decision-making process at local level, addressing two risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins: unavailability freshwater irrigation resulting from upstream propagation brackish water during droughts and land inundation by high levels associated with tides storm surges. For each risk, quantitative consequence descriptors proposed support level determination evaluation through continuous consequence–probability diagram. The applicability discussed its application Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca Xira, Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results indicate appropriate owners taking actions mitigate risk. Examples control measures addressed presented. main strengths flexibility be adapted conditions updated time, as well ease owner.